From QE to QT: Five questions for the ECB | Reuters
LONDON (Reuters) – The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, just weeks before a new halving of monthly asset purchases in October that will mark the next step in the unwinding of its massive monetary ropean Central Bank (ECB) headquarters building is seen in Frankfurt, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski As it moves away from unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) and toward quantitative tightening (QT), investors are looking for details on how the ‘great unwind’ will play are some of the key questions that may come up. 1/ Will the ECB make any changes to its policy guidance? To maintain flexibility, the ECB could firm up its ‘expectation’ of halving monthly bond purchases to 15 billion euros ($17. 5 billion) from October, but continue to say it ‘expects’ asset buying to end by the close of the is no doubt that QE will end at some point, and ECB chief Mario Draghi is likely to be pressed again at the bank’s news conference this Thursday for clarity on the bank’s stance on keeping rates steady at least “through the summer of 2019”. Analysts say the wording is deliberate to allow the bank flexibility. For markets, this rate guidance is key as asset purchases wind down. Money markets price roughly a 90 percent chance of an ECB rate hike in October 2019. A move by the end of next year is fully priced European Central Bank’s QE Programme: How will the ECB reinvest funds from maturing bonds? For euro zone bond markets long underpinned by the ECB’s 2. 6 trillion stimulus scheme, how the bank plans to reinvest funds from maturing bonds is potentially a big market man Sachs estimates the total amount of bonds up for reinvestment is likely to be near 120 billion euros in 2018 and reach roughly 200 billion euros a year by said in July the ECB would follow its capital key – the amount of capital each member state has paid in – when deciding on reinvestments, without providing more details. A challenge is that the remaining maturity of the ECB’s bond pile declines over time, so the bank will have to decide whether to target longer-dated bonds or allow its portfolio to an interactive version of the chart below, click here ‘s redemption estimates: Do global trade tensions complicate the ECB outlook? For sure, worries about an escalation in world trade tensions remain elevated, adding to turmoil in emerging markets and raising concerns about global growth. Several ECB officials have said a trade war is the key risk at ECB said in its August bulletin that, if all the measures threatened by Washington were to be implemented, the average U. S. tariff rate would rise to levels not seen in the last 50 onomists expect the ECB to stick to its expectation that the economy will remain in decent shape, and there has been some encouraging economic data. That means, for now at least, that trade war fears are unlikely to hold back the QE zone upside economic surprises overtake U. : Could the ECB extend QE for Italy? Reassuring comments from top Italian officials in the past week have calmed market fears that the new government in Rome is set to ramp up spending, worsening the debt profile and sparking a collision with EU rules on fiscal with the 2019 budget still pending, and with it, the risk of further market upheaval, Italy is likely to come up at the news in the Italian political establishment suggested recently the ECB could do more to keep Italy’s borrowing costs low after yields surged in ECB has only limited responsibility for maintaining financial stability, executive board member Yves Mersch said last week – a line the ECB may perhaps reiterate on public sector purchase programme breakdown by country: What about Draghi’s succession? The question may well come up at the news conference, given a recent report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is focusing on winning the European Commission presidency for a German rather than backing Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann to succeed Draghi. Draghi’s term as ECB boss expires in October decision on Draghi’s successor is a political one, which means Draghi may steer clear of the, with markets keen to get a sense of who is in the running, Draghi may instead be asked about the next chair of the banking watchdog the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). The ECB has to propose a candidate for the job and the outcome could influence the decision on next ECB rmany backs Ireland’s Sharon Donnery to replace current SSM head Daniele Nouy, whose term expires at the end of 2018. If Donnery gets the job, for instance, it’s likely to put Irish central bank governor Philip Lane out of the race to replace of the “bumblebee”: by Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Balazs Koranyi in FRANKFURT; Graphics by Ritvik Carvalho; Editing by Kevin Liffeyfor-phone-onlyfor-tablet-portrait-upfor-tablet-landscape-upfor-desktop-upfor-wide-desktop-up
Quantitative tightening – Wikipedia
Quantitative tightening (QT) (or quantitative hardening) is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease the amount of liquidity within the economy. The policy is the reverse of quantitative easing (QE), aimed to increase money supply in order to “stimulate” the economy. [1][2]
Quantitative easing was massively applied by leading central banks to counter the Great Recession that started in 2008. [2] The prime rates were decreased to zero; some rates later went into the negative territory. For example, to fight with ultra-low inflation or deflation caused by the economic crisis, the European Central Bank, overseeing monetary policy for countries that use the euro, introduced negative rates in 2014. The central banks of Japan, Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland also set negative rates. [3]
The main goal of QT is to normalize (i. e. raise) interest rates in order to avoid increasing inflation, by increasing the cost of accessing money and reducing demand for goods and services in the economy. Like QE before it, [needs update] QT has never been done before on a massive scale, and its consequences have yet to materialize and be studied. [4] In 2018, the Federal Reserve began retiring some of the debt on their balance sheet, beginning quantitative tightening. In 2019, less than a year after initiating QT, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ended quantitative tightening due to negative market conditions occurring soon after. [5]
An effect on asset prices[edit]
Whereas QE caused the substantial rise in asset prices over the past decade, QT may cause broadly offsetting effects in the opposite direction. [6]
See also[edit]
Excess reserves
Inflation hedge
Negative interest on excess reserves
Reaganomics
Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP)
References[edit]
^ Brookes, Marcus (October 18, 2017). “60 seconds explaining quantitative tightening”. Schroders. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
^ a b Phillips, Matt (30 January 2019). “The Hot Topic in Markets Right Now: ‘Quantitative Tightening’” – via
^ Soble, Jonathan (September 20, 2016). “Japan’s Negative Interest Rates Explained”. The New York Times. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
^ “What Is Quantitative Tightening? “. FXCM. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
^ “Fed Move Ends the Short Era of Global Quantitative Tightening”. Bloomberg L. P. Retrieved 24 April 2020.
^ Webb, Merryn Somerset (23 April 2018). “What to do as quantitative easing becomes quantitative tightening”. Money Week. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
External links[edit]
BNP Paribas on Quantitative tightening
bricke/Qt-AES: Native Qt AES encryption class – GitHub
Small and portable AES encryption class for Qt.
Native support for all key sizes – 128/192/256 bits – ECB, CBC, CFB and OFB modes
AES-NI support for all key sizes – ECB, CBC modes
Usage
Available Methods
// Encode of rawText with key
// iv is used in CBC mode
// return the encrypted byte array
QByteArray encode(const QByteArray rawText, const QByteArray key, const QByteArray iv = QByteArray());
// Decode of rawText with key
// return the decrypted byte array
QByteArray decode(const QByteArray rawText, const QByteArray key, const QByteArray iv = QByteArray());
// Key expansion in Rijndael schedule
// return the new expanded key as byte array
QByteArray expandKey(const QByteArray key);
The same methods are available as static calls
QAESEncryption::Crypt => encode(… )
QAESEncryption::Decrypt => decode(… )
QAESEncryption::ExpandKey => expandKey(… )
AES Levels
The class supports all AES key lenghts
AES_128
AES_192
AES_256
Modes
The class supports the following operating modes
ECB
CBC
CFB
OFB
Padding
By default the padding method is ISO, however, the class supports:
ZERO
PKCS7
ISO
Example
Sample code using a 128bit key in ECB mode
#include “qaesencryption. h”
QAESEncryption encryption(QAESEncryption::AES_128, QAESEncryption::ECB);
QByteArray encodedText = (plainText, key);
QByteArray decodedText = (encodedText, key);
Example for 256bit CBC using QString
#include
QAESEncryption encryption(QAESEncryption::AES_256, QAESEncryption::CBC);
QString inputStr(“The Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), also known by its original name Rijndael ”
“is a specification for the encryption of electronic data established by the U. S. ”
“National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in 2001”);
QString key(“your-string-key”);
QString iv(“your-IV-vector”);
QByteArray hashKey = QCryptographicHash::hash(Local8Bit(), QCryptographicHash::Sha256);
QByteArray hashIV = QCryptographicHash::hash(Local8Bit(), QCryptographicHash::Md5);
QByteArray encodeText = (Local8Bit(), hashKey, hashIV);
QByteArray decodeText = (encodeText, hashKey, hashIV);
QString decodedString = QString(movePadding(decodeText));
//decodedString == inputStr!!
Example via static invocation
Static invocation without creating instances, 256 bit key, ECB mode, starting from QString text/key
//Static invocation
QByteArray encrypted = QAESEncryption::Crypt(QAESEncryption::AES_256, QAESEncryption::CBC,
Local8Bit(), hashKey, hashIV);
//…
// Removal of Padding via Static function
QString decodedString = QString(QAESEncryption::RemovePadding(decodeText));
AES New Instructions Set
To use the hardware acceleration provided by the AES New Instructions Set, define USE_INTEL_AES_IF_AVAILABLE
If the CPU supports it, the code will switch to use AESNI automatically.
The feature is enabled by default
Unit Testing
The unit testing vectors used are included in NIST-Recommendation for Block Cipher Modes of Operation
Please note that this code is not audited or AES-certified by any competent authority, use it at your own risk.
Dependencies
qtcore
No OpenSSL required.
Contact
Question or suggestions are welcome!
Please use the GitHub issue tracking to report suggestions or issues.
License
This software is provided under the UNLICENSE
Known Issues
Please take a look at the list of currently open issues